For the semiconductor industry, although in 2022, the original chip shortage will be alleviated with the release of production capacity, the subsequent economic weakness and declining consumption will also pose challenges to many industries. In the upcoming 2023, what will be the trend of the semiconductor market? Let's take a look at the recent forecasts issued by multiple agencies.
SIA: Demand rebound expected in second half of 2023
According to the latest report released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA):
The chip shortage will gradually ease in 2022, but the growth of global semiconductor sales will slow down sharply in the second half of this year, and the industrial utilization rate will decline. The semiconductor industry also continues to face significant challenges: including developing a skilled workforce, dealing with global competition for U.S. leadership in chip design, and maintaining access to global markets and supply chains.
According to the cyclical characteristics of the semiconductor industry, demand is not expected to rebound until the second half of 2023.
IC Insights: Semiconductor Sales Expected to Decline 5% in 2023
According to the latest report released by market research firm IC Insights, global semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 3% in 2022 and hit a new record of US$636 billion in sales. However, due to factors such as weak demand and high inventory, it is expected that total semiconductor sales will decrease by 5% in 2023.
However, after experiencing a cyclical decline in 2023, IC Insights predicts that semiconductor sales will rebound and achieve stronger growth in the next three years. Semiconductor sales are projected to climb to $843.6 billion by 2026, a CAGR of 6.5%.
Gartner: Revenue of chip companies is expected to decline by 3.6% in 2023
Global semiconductor revenue will reach $618 billion this year, up 4% year-on-year, according to research firm Gartner. However, affected by the deterioration of the global economy and weak consumer demand, it is estimated that next year's revenue will decrease by 3.6% year-on-year, falling below US$600 billion to US$596 billion, which is lower than the previous estimate of US$623 billion.
Gartner expects the storage market to bear a large portion of the decline as consumer electronics demand continues to weaken and high inventory levels put pressure on prices. Revenue from the memory chip business is expected to decline 16.2 percent next year, the research firm added. Micron Technology is one of the main competitors in the memory chip business along with SK Hynix and Samsung.
Revenues in other areas are also expected to decline sharply, according to Gartner, including Micron Technology, which also has a presence in dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), which is forecast to drop 18% to $74.2 billion.